GUEST BLOGGER CARLO ROVELLI

Physicist, University of Aix-Marseille, France; Author, The First Scientist: Anaximander and the Nature of Science

The Uselessness of Certainty

There is a widely used notion that does plenty of damage: the notion of "scientifically proven". Nearly an oxymoron. The very foundation of science is to keep the door open to doubt. Precisely because we keep questioning everything, especially our own premises, we are always ready to improve our knowledge. Therefore a good scientist is never 'certain'. Lack of certainty is precisely what makes conclusions more reliable than the conclusions of those who are certain: because the good scientist will be ready to shift to a different point of view if better elements of evidence or novel arguments emerge. Therefore certainty is not only something of no use, but is in fact damaging, if we value reliability.

Failure to appreciate the value of the lack of certainty is at the origin of much silliness in our society. Are we sure that the Earth is going to keep heating up, if we do not do anything? Are we sure of the details of the current theory of evolution? Are we sure that modern medicine is always a better strategy than traditional ones? No we are not, in none of these cases. But if from this lack of certainty we jump to the conviction that we better not care about global heating, that there is no evolution and the world was created six thousand years ago, or that traditional medicine must be more effective than the modern medicine, well, we are simply stupid. Still, many people do these silly inferences. Because the lack of certainty is perceived as a sign of weakness, instead of being what it is: the first source of our knowledge.

Every knowledge, even the most solid, carries a margin of uncertainty. (I am very sure about my own name ... but what if I just hit my head and got momentarily confused?) Knowledge itself is probabilistic in nature, a notion emphasized by some currents of philosophical pragmatism. Better understanding of the meaning of probability, and especially realizing that we never have, nor need, 'scientifically proven' facts, but only a sufficiently high degree of probability, in order to make decisions and act.

IT’S REALLY QUITE SIMPLE

 Complexity in government is bad. Simplicity is good. We should tell our representatives to “keep it simple, stupid!” There is nothing good to be said about a convoluted and incomprehensible system of health-care administration and tax collection. For instance, the current complex tax system has thousands of inequities. The politicians line their pockets by continually tinkering with the tax code to benefit special interest groups. We should scrap our confusing, unfair tax code and replace it with a simple flat tax of one low rate with no deductions or special interest loopholes. Unlike the current system, a flat tax is simple, fair, and good for growth. Instead of the 893 forms required by the current system, a flat tax would use only two postcard-sized forms: one for labor income and the other for business and capital income.

You should never underestimate the power of a simple idea. Sometimes very simple ideas are the best solution to some of our most complex problems. When your next challenge arises, look around for a simple idea that may end up being the best and the cheapest solution to your problem. “They say the world has become too complex for simple answers. They are wrong!” _ Ronald Reagan “The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.” _Warren Buffett  “All the great things are simple, and can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope.” _ Winston Churchill  “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”_ Leonardo da Vinci  “Simple beats complex”_ Harry Teets.                                               

WHERE HAS OUR SENSE OF ADVENTURE GONE?

This age of technology seems to have reduced our desire for adventure. That is a shame because in order to live life to the fullest, we need a passion for it. Adventure is the element of a full life that is most neglected in modern society. We need adventure to help us find ourselves. It is not the discovery of new things that is important. It is the understanding of ourselves which we acquire through high adventure. Adventurous people ask questions, seek answers, and take risks. They do it for the pure joy of knowing what it is like to have journeyed into an unusual experience. An unexpected, exciting course of events is very stimulating and helps one to become a better person. If you are curious and love to learn and discover new things, then you should go on an adventure!

And that is exactly what my son, Marcus, and his bride, Jules, are going to do for their honeymoon trip. They will be flying to Jakarta, the capital of Java which is the most densely populated island in the world. It plays a dominant role in the economic and political life of Indonesia. It is always warm there and they have just two seasons_the wet season and the dry season. Its main religion is Muslim but it has a history of being Hindu and Buddhist. There are many ancient temples to explore. Marcus and Jules will be experiencing a sunrise at the impressive Borobudur Temple. Then they fly to Delhi, India and from there to Kathmandu, Nepal. This is the country with eight of the world’s ten tallest mountains including Mount Everest which is the highest point on Earth. No, they will not attempt to reach the summit but they plan on some treks in the remote mountain country. Their honeymoon is a serious adventure!!

CAN YOU DESCRIBE YOUR POLITICAL BELIEVES?

Do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, Independent, Libertarian, or what? Are you a conservative or a liberal? Do you participate (vote in elections) in our political system? I think most of us, and our society as well, would benefit from some self examination. I recommend that you try to articulate your beliefs and then decide which political party platform comes the closest to seeking what you would like the government to do. Which political candidate has goals similar to yours?  Yes, I understand that it is not easy. Most political platforms are vague and most candidates make it difficult to ascertain where they stand on issues (they can be dishonest and lie a lot.) It is best to check their past actions and history to see what they believe in.

Personally, I consider myself to be a combination of: conservative republican, independent, and libertarian. I want the government to use taxes for infrastructure, national defense, public safety, law enforcement and public education. I would eliminate all federal subsidies to private corporations. I am opposed to any new entitlement programs. All long term welfare programs should be reformed to only provide help for those who really have a need. Yes, I know it is difficult to determine legitimate needs but surely we can do a better job then we have in the past. Historically, the government has done more harm than good when it tries to tinker with the economy. The government should use regulations to protect the public but otherwise, let the free economy do its thing.

HOBBIES ARE GOOD FOR YOU!

Do you have a hobby? If not, you should consider getting one. The benefits are enormous. They are an oasis in the desert of life. They provide nourishing facts of knowledge along with an escape from monotonous life. Life would be very boring without hobbies. They are a diversion, a passion, and can give a sense of purpose. I have enjoyed a bunch of hobbies: Sailing, mountain hiking, reading, chess, bridge, gardening, blogging, stamp collecting, wood carving, wine label and cork collecting, water colors, sunsets, and poetry.  Hobbies have played an important role in my life. They helped to pass spare time and gave me pleasure, peace of mind, and relaxation. I think they have had a positive effect on my health. They say that hobbies help you to avoid Alzheimer’s disease and to have a long life. The best benefit of a hobby is new friendships! People who collect empty toilet paper rolls just naturally become friends of people who have the same interest. Who wouldn’t like to have more friends?